Self-driving cars could prevent over 1 million road injuries across the US by 2035

Autonomous vehicles could dramatically reduce traffic accidents and injuries on U.S. roads. Drawing on historical data and current trends, a recent JAMA Surgery study projected that self-driving cars could prevent more than 1 million injuries between 2025 and 2035, resulting in a 3.6% reduction in traffic-related injuries over the next decade.

Motor vehicle crashes remain a major public health crisis worldwide. In the U.S. alone, they are a leading cause of death that claims more than 120 lives every day. In 2022, crashes also resulted in more than 2.6 million emergency department visits for injury treatment. The consequences of fatal crashes reach far beyond the scene of the accident, costing the nation more than $470 billion in medical expenses and lost economic potential from lives cut short.

However, most road accidents are preventable. The majority of crashes stem from human error or substance use, such as driving under the influence. Reducing these risk factors could significantly improve road safety, and research shows that the adoption of fully automated vehicles (AV) could nudge it in the right direction. Initial findings from AV companies such as Waymo indicated that self-driving cars might reduce accident rates by 80% compared to human-operated vehicles.

As the population of autonomous vehicles on the road continues to grow, independent research becomes essential to fully understand how this emerging technology could shape public health.

Predicting future trends with self-driving cars

A team of researchers from Canada decided to find an answer to this question. To fully understand the impact of AV on the number of road traffic injuries, they analyzed U.S. national road traffic injury (RTI) data from 2009 to 2023 and used it to estimate trends for 2025–2035 by applying a linear regression model.

Their prediction hinged on two main questions: How many total miles will be driven by autonomous vehicles (AVs)? And how much safer are AVs than humans?

Using a mathematical growth curve to predict realistic adoption patterns, they tested four levels of AV usage in the U.S. by 2035: 1%, 2.5%, 5%, and 10% of all miles being driven on roads. For safety, they examined scenarios in which AVs are 50% safer than human drivers, as well as an optimistic scenario—based on data from companies such as Waymo—where AVs are 80% safer.

They found that under assumptions in which autonomous vehicles account for only 1% of total miles driven and are only 50% safer than human drivers, more than 67,000 injuries could be prevented. Under more favorable conditions of 10% adoption and 80% safer than human driving, they found that the number of avoided injuries could exceed 1 million.

While the findings are promising, they require further refinement because long-term, real-world safety data are limited, as AV adoption remains at a nascent stage. The researchers noted that their estimates will need updating as more data becomes available.

To better assess AV safety, future studies should focus on analyzing data from highways, where most severe injuries and deaths occur.

Written for you by our author Sanjukta Mondal, edited by Lisa Lock, and fact-checked and reviewed by Robert Egan—this article is the result of careful human work. We rely on readers like you to keep independent science journalism alive. If this reporting matters to you, please consider a donation (especially monthly). You'll get an ad-free account as a thank-you.

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